Dynasty. That’s what’s on the line for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers as we head into the 2024 Grey Cup Playoffs. An 0-4 start, and then, holding a record of 2-6 when the calendar turned to August, winning a third Cup in a stretch of five seasons seemed like… well, a stretch. Then after a miraculous turnaround to their season, capped by the help of a blessed October breeze off the slope of Mount Royal, Big Blue clinched first place in the West Division for a fourth-consecutive season — the first such instance since the early 1960s — paced by nine wins over their final ten games.
As Winnipeg heads into the CFL Playoffs, it begs the question: just who are these Blue Bombers? Are they the team that rifled off eight-straight wins, or the team that needed a gust of divine wind to beat the Montreal Alouettes in Week 21? Are they the team that won five one-score games, or the team that lost five one-score games? To answer this question, let’s take a deeper look at Winnipeg’s defence, special teams, and finally the offence.
The Bombers defence was a revelation in the debut of rookie Defensive Coordinator Jordan Younger.
Younger’s defence was the best in the CFL in 2024; tops in points against, yards against, touchdowns against, and first downs allowed. Winnipeg also led the league in opponent second down conversion-percentage. The air defence in particular has been exceptional. Often sending only three pass rushers and dropping nine defenders into coverage, the Bombers’ sublime secondary has rendered Younger’s defence first in passing yards against, completions, completion-percentage, and passing efficiency. They’ve also allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns (19).
However, Winnipeg’s defence struggled against the attacks of two CFL pivots in particular; Trevor Harris of the Roughriders, and Cody Fajardo of the Alouettes. With five passing touchdowns and two interceptions through three games against the Bombers, Saskatchewan’s Trevor Harris averaged 327 yards-per-game in those contests. In facing an air defence that averaged an opponent completion-percentage of 59.6, Montreal’s Cody Fajardo bucked the trend with an 80.5.
Willie Jefferson shows his game face, July 12, 2024 — photo credit; Zachary Peters
Winnipeg’s D created the fewest sacks in the CFL in 2024, and generating more pressure will go a long way in limiting quarterbacks like Harris and Fajardo in the playoffs. This lack of pressure was particularly evident in Winnipeg’s 28-27 win against Montreal this past week, where the Als’ quarterback duo of Fajardo and Davis Alexander went a combined 25-of-29 passing for an eye-popping 86.2 completion-percentage. With Canadian linemen Jake Thomas and Tanner Schmekel unable to help consistently collapse the pocket, and the Bombers starting more Canadians than necessary for the ratio, Younger could consider giving Americans Miles Fox and Jamal Woods more snaps on the interior. Additionally, with the cold-weather run game boost that usually accompanies playoff football, Winnipeg’s run D will also need to improve, as they finished middle-of-pack statistically in 2024.
Before the season began, Head Coach Mike O’Shea told a still wet-behind-the-ears rookie Special Teams Coordinator Mike Miller that he would not let him fail.
Often appearing adjacent to Miller on the sidelines, O’Shea appears to have been true to his word. By and large, the Bombers special teams have been good. Sergio Castillo set CFL records for distance kicks and has shown to have ice in his veins — the latest example, his walk-off 51-yard field goal in the driving wind and rain in Montreal on the final play of the regular season. The Bombers have seen an impressive turnaround on kick and punt return coverage compared to their 2023 metrics. Under Special Teams Coordinator Paul Boudreau Jr. last season, Winnipeg ranked last in average punt return yards allowed and second-last in average kickoff return yards allowed. In 2024, the Bombers ranked first in average punt return yardage allowed, and second in average kickoff return yardage allowed. Winnipeg’s opponents saw the worst starting field position in the CFL this season. Canadian football is a field position game. With opponents starting a full five yards further back this year compared to last, Miller is proving that he can be as exceptional as a coach as he was a player.
An area where improvement could be made is the return game. Winnipeg ranked last in the CFL with only three “big play” returns (kick returns of 40+ yards and punt returns of 30+ yards). Though he broke a 54-yard punt return against Montreal last week, Lucky Whitehead has been mostly unspectacular. Like any other phase in football, returns are a 12-man effort, so the Bombers special teamers will need to open things up for Whitehead if Winnipeg’s “specials” are to be a well-rounded unit in the postseason.
It has come to the surprise of many to see Winnipeg’s offence as the “weakest link” in 2024.
Ranking first in net offence and points-per-game in 2023, the Bombers dropped to seventh in those categories in 2024. The air attack was especially inconsistent, ranking last in yards, touchdowns, and completions. Interestingly, though Collaros had a down year with a TD-to-INT ratio of 15:17, he set a career high with 4,332 passing yards. Furthermore, since Labour Day QB1 has thrown 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Collaros will need to continue this trend of executing at a high level in the playoffs, something he’s somewhat struggled with the last four postseasons. Through nine playoff games in Blue & Gold, Collaros — or as he’s known to his teammates, “8 Ball Corner Pocket” — has amassed modest numbers, averaging 206 passing yards per game, with six touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Winnipeg’s bully ball ground game, however, was a consistently-dominant asset in 2024, led by the West Division’s Most Outstanding Player nominee Brady Oliveira. But if we look at the numbers against the Bombers’ potential playoff opponents, Oliveira’s numbers are less than stellar. Against Montreal statistically poor run defence last week, Oliveira totalled just 46 scrimmage yards. In Winnipeg’s Week 1 loss to the Als, Oliveira put up 38 total yards before missing Week 2 due to injury. In three games against Saskatchewan’s elite run defence, Oliveira averaged 43 rushing yards.
With Collaros trending up, the Bombers’ attack is most definitely dangerous, but they will need to find ways to run the ball effectively against the elite run defences they may face in the cold of November.
Stretching defences with lateral backfield motion, and the threat of Lucky Whitehead and Nic Demski speed sweeps, can help open up the north-south run game. This, combined with the check-down passing game — Oliveira had a career-high 465 receiving yards in 2024 — Winnipeg would find an effective counter to opposing defences, as they will surely focus on stopping the run.
Now, we wonder and wait to see who these 2024 Bombers really are. They are a very good team, we know this, and are definitely championship calibre as they enter the playoffs. They’ve won a lot of close games, which is the norm in this league, but raises the anxiety level of any and all fans. If an elite defence develops more consistent QB pressure, the return game finds some playoff pop, and Collaros continues a high level of execution — especially with a more nuanced rushing attack — the Bombers could find themselves hoisting their third Cup in a span of just five seasons.
Not only would a win in the 111th Grey Cup remind fans of Winnipeg’s glory days of 1958 though 1962, and the 1980s Blue Bombers’ dominance capped in 1990 with a third Grey Cup title in a span of seven years — it would also cement the franchise as the CFL’s modern day dynasty.
Great article Schnitzy!!!
Hello!
Good cheer to all on this beautiful day!!!!!
Good luck 🙂